Economic Context
The Dutch economy continues to demonstrate resilience, with GDP growth at 1.4% year-over-year and unemployment at a low 3.9%. Population growth remains positive at 0.5%. However, purchasing power is forecast to decline, and inflationary pressures persist, particularly through elevated energy costs. Retail sales growth in non-food categories stands at 1.2%, reflecting cautious but steady consumer sentiment amid a stabilising macroeconomic environment.
Investment Market
Leasing activity in the Dutch retail sector remains robust, supported by sustained consumer spending and ongoing expansion by both domestic and international retailers. Demand is highly selective, with strong competition for larger, well-configured units in prime high street locations across major cities.
International market entrants and expanding retailers continue to target the most prominent locations, while secondary pitches and less accessible shopping centres are experiencing longer vacancy periods and more subdued demand. Retailers are becoming increasingly focused on location quality, unit size and the surrounding tenant mix to maximise turnover and footfall.
Occupier Market
The Dutch retail market continues to demonstrate resilience, supported by growing consumer spending and sustained demand from both domestic and international retailers. At the same time, a clear polarisation is emerging: prime locations in major cities are benefiting from limited availability and strong demand, while secondary retail areas are increasingly facing higher vacancy levels.
A similar trend can be observed in neighbourhood and convenience shopping centres, where well-performing schemes with strong accessibility and dominant supermarket anchors continue to outperform less attractive locations. As a result, retailers are becoming more selective in their location strategies.
Although consumer spending remains solid, elevated energy costs and inflation continue to pose risks. Ultimately, the quality of the location and its position within the local market remain the key determinants of retail performance and long-term success.
The Dutch retail market in Q3 2026 is defined by stabilised investment momentum, resilient occupier demand, and a widening performance gap between prime and secondary locations.
