As I write this, the conflict with Iran is into its 5th week. On Global calls, at conferences & at the office water dispenser the most often used wording is that real estate capital markets activity is showing “resilience”. Transactions are either proceeding or language like “paused not cancelled”, “drifted sideways” is being used, but how quickly could that change? Across the Globe we are gathering real time intelligence on transactions & also looking to leading indicators from the broader economy, & areas within our sphere like the occupier markets where “softness” & “decision making delays or cancellations” might show up first. Accordingly, an article at this moment in time is in danger of aging fast & not in a favorable way!
We have therefore focused in this edition on the tools needed to help underwrite any specific transaction. Market Data, “How to Guides” on being Acquisition ready & also our leading research into the arena of AI. More on that below & via the links to our AI Barometer & AI Impact Hub.
The second area of focus in this edition that is more specific to the Real Estate sectors & mitigating risk in investment decisions is our focus on Alternatives which display many structural & demographic tailwinds. We hosted an extremely well-attended & informative Living Leaders dinner in March which my colleague Josh reflects upon.
Lastly, we have deepened our insights on the Life Sciences sector, with the angle that the progress China is making in all aspects of R&D, product development & licensing should be viewed through a Global lens rather than confining the thinking to the domestic (China) real estate market.
Navigating Conflict & AI successfully (an unexpected word combination & heading!)
Most discussions around AI and real estate are necessarily forward looking, focused on how demand evolves, which assets benefit, and where long term risk accumulates. That remains the right horizon. But investors also need to anchor those structural themes in what is happening now.
Geopolitical risk has re emerged as a near term variable, with energy markets once again acting as the transmission channel. Disruption around the Strait of Hormuz has pushed oil prices higher and reintroduced volatility just as global real estate markets were beginning to regain momentum. These pressures are cyclical and near term, influencing pricing, liquidity, and timing. AI, by contrast, is structural. It reshapes how space is used, which assets remain relevant, and how cash flows compound over a decade.
Commercial real estate enters this period from a stronger position than in previous shocks. Values have largely reset, leverage is lower, debt markets are functioning, and leasing fundamentals are improving. In Asia Pacific, higher energy exposure may weigh on sentiment in the short term, but the region remains a beneficiary of structural demand across logistics, living sectors, urbanisation, and network resilience. Asset selection matters more than market selection.
This is where long term AI themes intersect with near term reality. Assets that support flexibility, reliability, decision speed, and service delivery are better positioned to absorb volatility. Investors do not need to choose between short term risk management and long term conviction. The opportunity is to do both.
