APARTMENT FOR SALE
NEWSUPPLY: NEW SUPPLY EASES AT THE START OF 2026
In Q1 2026, core Ho Chi Minh City recorded a sharp decline in new launches, with approximately 1,200 units introduced, down 62% QoQ and 47% YoY. The slowdown reflects a cautious “wait-and-see” stance from developers at the start of the year.
The East submarket continued to dominate, accounting for 80.3% of total supply, followed by the South with 19.7%. By segment, the luxury tier led with 72%, while high-end products made up the remaining 28%. Notable launches, including Masteri Cosmo Central and Masteri Park Place by Masterise Homes, as well as Sunshine Sky City by Sunshine Group, gained strong traction, supported by premium positioning and attractive sales strategies.
DEMAND: ABSORPTION SLOWS IN Q1 2026
In Q1 2026, the market recorded a new absorption of below the 1,000-unit mark, equivalent to ~ 25% of new supply, down 74% QoQ and 31% YoY. The combination of the upward primary prices and limited product diversity (lack of affordable/mid-end options) has clearly cooled buyer appetite compared to the momentum seen in 2025. This trend indicates that demand is mismatched between luxury supply and mid-market demand.
Besides, the tightening of credit and rising cost of debt act as a significant headwind, slowing absorption as buyers adopt a cautious wait-and-see approach for more favorable monetary conditions later upcoming quarters.
PRICES: AVERAGE PRIMARY PRICES MAINTAIN UPWARD MOMENTUM
In Q1 2026, while supply hit a record low, the average primary price reached an all-time high of nearly 7,300 USD/m2, a sharp increase of ~ 19% QoQ, ~ 53% YoY. Notably, this figure represents the baseline market valuation and does not yet deduct for 'early bird' incentives or accelerated payment discounts, indicating sales policies and payment schedule continues to play a major role in shaping list prices.
OUTLOOK: SUSTAINABLE GROWTH
The trend of average primary selling prices in the core HCMC market is expected to remain anchored at high levels due to rising input cost pressures and upward adjustments in mortgage interest rates. Capital flows from other regions, particularly investors from the North, are pouring into core HCMC with expectations of price appreciation after a long period of stagnation caused by a shortage of new supply. Following the merger, the market is expected to continue growing steadily based on three factors: supply-demand balance, credit control, and legal support. This opens a new cycle for the expanded Ho Chi Minh City apartment market.
LANDED PROPERTY
SUPPLY: LIMITED NEW SUPPLY WITH SHIFT TO OUTER SUBMARKETS
In Q1 2026, new launches in core HCMC declined sharply to approximately 400 units, down 73% QoQ, and up 130% YoY. The slowdown was partly seasonal, as the lunar new year led to temporary disruptions in market activity, with developers prioritizing inventory clearance over new phase launches.
Notably, ~ 98% of the new supply is not located in the inner city but has shifted to peripheral areas – the South region, with the new launch phases of a mega-project in Can Gio area (about 60 km from Ho Chi Minh city center); the remaining 2% of new supply is distributed by the East region. Prominent projects include Vinhomes Green Paradise Can Gio (Vingroup) and Sola Villas – The Global City (Masterise Homes)
DEMAND: DEMAND MODERATES AS FINANCING CONDITIONS TIGHTEN
In Q1 2026, the market recorded an absorption rate of approximately 25%, with only around 240 units sold amid limited new supply. Demand remained subdued, primarily constrained by elevated mortgage rates, which stabilized at 10–14% by March 2026, significantly reducing participation from leveraged buyers. As a result, market activity was largely driven by high-net-worth individuals, with demand concentrated in core landed properties perceived as a safe-haven asset class. Developers during this period often use flexible payment policies to stimulate demand, helping maintain the current absorption rate.
PRICES: K-SHAPED DYNAMIC EMERGENCE
The average primary market sales price across the entire market is recorded nearly USD 7,200/m2, We are seeing a "K-shaped" divergence in pricing in Q1 2026 —the upper arm is driven by equity – rich capital seeking premium submarkets like former Thu Duc City are recorded over ~ USD15,000/m2, while the lower arm is weighed down by interest-rate sensitivity. In addition, this divergence is exactly why submarkets like Binh Tan at ~ USD 7,200/m2 (up 33.9%) and Binh Chanh at ~ USD4,600/m2 (up 12.9%) are so interesting—they are currently trying to "jump" from the lower arm to the upper arm by introducing more premium, gated products
OUTLOOK: BEGINNING OF A NEW CYCLE WITH LONG-TERM DRIVING FACTORS
The market is beginning a new cycle with a surge in new supply after a long period of stagnation, with the entry of large-scale urban areas and projects, notably the strong shift towards suburban areas such as Can Gio and multi-polar central urban areas. The market is experiencing price differentiation with a "dilution" effect on the average primary selling price across Ho Chi Minh City, but the value of inner-city real estate in the central poles remains high, indicating that strategically located properties are still a high-value asset. Long-term investor confidence has returned, driven by long-term factors such as the future connectivity of the Ring Road and the Transport-Oriented Development (TOD) model, which are leveraging the value of landed property in core Ho Chi Minh City
