Legislative changes scheduled to take effect in 2026 are likely to impact residential supply and prices, as well as development costs. Trends Radar, a report by global real estate services firm Cushman & Wakefield, explores the potential implications of these changes and examines the state of the Polish market in the run-up to 2026.
The year 2026 is shaping up to mark another inflection point for Poland’s residential market with the introduction of new regulations, including obligations arising from the Act on Civil Protection and the spatial planning reform. These measures are likely to hinder development activity and impact land availability and pricing.
“Both the Act on Civil Protection and the planning reform are necessary changes, but keeping investors in limbo until almost the very end as to the final shape of these regulations creates significant challenges for them. The spatial planning reform, scheduled to come into force in mid-2026, is likely to affect future supply and shape residential market dynamics for years to come,” comments Karolina Furmańska, Associate, Living Sector, Cushman & Wakefield.
From 1 January 2026, all new-build residential projects will be required to incorporate temporary emergency shelters. These measures are expected to increase total project costs by 2–5%. While a partial reimbursement scheme from the state budget has been established, non-reimbursed costs are likely to be passed on to homebuyers, particularly for projects designed to meet higher security standards.
The spatial planning reform, which is set to take full effect in June 2026, will also have significant implications for the sector. Although it was originally designed to reduce uncoordinated development and curb urban sprawl and its associated costs, it is unfolding amid legislative confusion. Three amendments to one single act are currently progressing through parliament, creating interpretative ambiguity and complicating preparations not only for investors but, above all, for local governments, which are responsible for implementing the act and adopting planning documents.
“On the one hand, the intentions of lawmakers are sound. The Zoning Act of 2003 was far from perfect and it is clear that we need greater spatial order, as urban sprawl costs us a fortune every year. On the other hand, the changes are being introduced haphazardly and are difficult even for professionals to follow. In the worst-case scenario, by patching up another hole, we may end up in a situation similar to that 20 years ago – making only minimal improvements while risking making things worse, with changes that could be very costly,” says Karolina Furmańska.
Residential prices have stabilised, but pressure is likely to return
After the rapid increases in 2022–2023, driven in part by the “2% Safe Mortgage” programme, residential prices in Poland have now levelled off. According to Otodom Analytics, between Q2 and Q3 2025, quarterly price growth averaged just 0.1% in Warsaw and 1.6% in Krakow. The total supply of flats on offer on the primary market remains stable at more than 62,000 units, of which 15,000 are in Warsaw alone.
Sales of flats remain relatively strong, with nearly 24,700 units sold across Poland’s seven largest markets by the end of August 2025, according to Otodom Analytics. Meanwhile, the obligation to publish the prices of all flats, effective from 11 September 2025, has improved market transparency, facilitating decision-making for buyers.
In addition, borrowing activity is picking up.
“Given falling interest rates, a large number of units on offer, stable supply and continuously rising wages, the loan market is expected to rebound further,” adds Karolina Furmańska.
The rental market is stabilising following a period of rapid increases in recent years, with average rents rising by approximately 2% year-on-year. At the same time, rental demand remains strong amid high occupancy levels in both major cities and their surrounding agglomerations.
PRS and PBSA: segments in a transitional phase
The Private Rented Sector (PRS) is currently stabilising. In the third quarter, the sector saw its largest-ever transaction: the acquisition of 18 Resi4Rent projects by TAG Immobilien Group, pending approval of the deal closing by the Polish Office of Competition and Consumer Protection (UOKiK). Some investors, rather than selling projects, have opted to market units to individual buyers. At the same time, the sector continues to grow, with investors securing land for future projects.
“A similar growth story is being seen in the PBSA sector. Poland’s student population has increased to more than 1.28 million, including 108,600 international students. Private and university-owned halls of residence can accommodate just 10% of total student demand, which is driving investor interest. Announced projects are expected to deliver another 8,000 beds in private halls over the next two to four years – still a drop in the ocean relative to needs,” comments Karolina Furmańska.
Structural trends and demographics
Although Poland is experiencing a long-term population decline, urbanisation and suburbanisation in the largest agglomerations will continue to support strong housing demand. The number of single-person households, especially among seniors, is on the rise, fuelling the development of compact, functional flats. That said, senior housing remains a niche sector, though it is expected to gain momentum in the coming years.
Meanwhile, demand is growing for city-centre developments, including urban villas and high-standard apartments featuring green and smart solutions. These trends are pushing prices up in prestigious locations and driving the growth of the premium segment. Investors and banks are increasingly targeting ESG-compliant projects: energy-efficient, certified and offering a higher level of comfort.